Discover our regional analysis for the EU2019 elections

Andorra
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
France
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom

Potential Scenarios
The Good: Improvement
- Europeans move forward from Brexit with an increased positive sentiment toward the Union leading to a wider representation of pro-European parties in the European Parliament
- Anti-establishment parties fail to deliver on expectations. Stability in the European Parliament with traditional pro European political groups reenergized
The Bad: Paralysis
- A more splintered European Parliament with a significant increase in the number of nationalist or populist MEPs. No governing majority and each legislative vote turns into an unpredictable political battle
- The EU decision making process is slow. No real ambition for the Union. No country takes a leading role driving the agenda
The Ugly: Deterioration
- Anti-establishment parties take control of the European Parliament. Negotiations are mainly based on national issues. Agreements hard to reach
- Increasingly vocal calls from other Member States to follow UK out of the Union
FTI Key Takeaway:The elections remain an open race. Current polls suggest we are heading towards a hybrid. Brexit is undermining the European project but is also galvanising opinions about its priorities. A reinvigorated European project being pushed by politicians like French President Macron, could reconnect with voters. However this will be compounded by an influx of new anti-establishment MEPs representing the far left and right. The devil will be in the detail and the final numbers to see who, if any, will hold the balance of power in the new Parliament.

FTI Prediction: Top 3 trends

Instability:
Louder and stronger anti-establishment parties will disrupt.

Divide:
Increasing divergence between western and eastern Europe.

Governance:
Tough negotiations expected to define new governing majority.
Introducing the European Parliament’s current political groupings:
- European Peoples Party (EPP) – Right, pro European, conservative
- Socialists & Democrats (S&D) – Left, pro European, progressive
- Alliance of Liberals & Democrats for Europe (ALDE) – Centrists, pro European, liberal values
- The Greens / European Free Alliance (GREENS) – Left, pro European, progressive
- Anti-establishment – Brings together Eurosceptic, populists and extreme parties (GUE/NGL, EFDD, ENF, NI)
NB:ECR (European Conservative and Reform group) set to disappear with the UK conservatives leaving parliament with Brexit. Other members will go to another group. Please note that regions have been created for illustrative purpose, only based on geography, not politics.

Source: EP Press News web page / including LREM in ALDE – Based on mid-March polls
Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania)

FTI Prediction: Top 3 trends

Priorities:
Maintaining good working relationships with EU partners and managing Russian influence in the region.

Issues:
Concern over Russia’s influence means safety and security are the priority, energy and transportation also on the radar.

People:
Strong and positive EU sentiment, but increasing divide between perceived elites and broader public opinion, leading to a moderate rise of anti-establishment parties.

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Nordics (Denmark, Finland, Sweden)

FTI Prediction: Top 3 trends

Priorities:
Will seek to replace UK as liberal voice within the Union with a strong pro open market and free trade stance.

Issues:
Will want to prioritise climate change, driving ambitious targets.

People:
All pro European parties to get a stable representation in the Parliament. S&D are set to increase their representation. Greens loosing half of their seats.

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Germany and Austria

FTI Prediction: Top 3 trends

Priorities:
Will try and retain leadership of the Union in a post Merkel world and reignite the Franco-German engine post Brexit.

Issues:
Immigration will continue to resonate with voters. Continued economic integration will drive policy decisions.

People:
No major change. Pro European parties will continue to secure the largest number of seats. S&D will slip while the Greens will secure a significant increase. Anti-establishment parties expected to keep their large representation.

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BeNeLux and Ireland

FTI Prediction: Top 3 trends

Priorities:
Brexit a major concern for all countries given close trading links with the UK. Expect closer coordination with Nordics in representing voice of the open market and liberal values.

Issues:
Irish political parties increasingly taking on all-Ireland issues such as peace and stability, cross-border trade or the reunification of the island. Dutch will champion closer integration and climate change.

People:
No major changes are expected. The Greens could double their representation, building on current positive dynamic in several countries.

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Visegrad (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia)

FTI Prediction: Top 3 trends

Priorities:
Strike a more pragmatic interpretation of the European project. Seek to balance German and French domination.

Issues:
Migration will be the number one priority. Potential Article 7 censure based on violations of single market rules could limit the ability of Hungarian and Polish MEPs ability to vote on new draft legislation.

People:
Major losses expected for more traditional conservative parties. Newer popular parties likely to benefit. Should Fidesz (Orban’s party) in Hungary be kicked out of the EPP group at any time then more than 50% of total MEPs from the region could sit in non pro-European parties.

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Iberia (Portugal and Spain)

FTI Prediction: Top 3 trends

Priorities:
Strong support for more European integration and promotion of stronger links with Latin America and Mercosur.

Issues:
Fisheries and the common agricultural policy will be at the forefront for both countries. Energy security and infrastructure will also be looked at closely.

People:
Both countries will buck the European trend and continue support for traditional parties, even if Catalonian independence movement and national party politics will dominate Spanish agenda.

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France

FTI Prediction: Top 3 trends

Priorities:
Macron will seek to replace Merkel as the de-facto leader of Europe. Will increasingly seek to reinvigorate the Union even if it ends in a more fragment (multi-speed) Europe.

Issues:
Push to get a good deal with upcoming CAP negotiation, and strong wish to create sectoral European champions. European cooperation on defence and security as well as climate change issues also on the radar.

People:
Traditional parties are expected to lose a good number of seats to Macron’s En Marche movement: how many seats it will secure and whether it will create a new group or join with ALDE. LePen’s far right Rassemblement National will keep large representation.

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Balkans (Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, Slovenia) and Cyprus

FTI Prediction: Top 3 trends

Priorities:
Move from a take to give approach as EU seeks more accountability and responsibility from Member States.

Issues:
Solutions for dealing with an ageing population rule of law and corruption continue to dominate as EU patience wanes.

People:
Traditional pro European parties continue to lead with large and stable representation. Greens out.

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Italy and Malta

FTI Prediction: Top 3 trends

Priorities:
Domestic agenda will dominate. Will seek like-minded partners to balance perceived Franco-German hegemony.

Issues:
Continued concern over stability of the Euro given recent Italian budget violations. Migration will be a key concern. Wish for less EU intervention will jar with other major Member States wanting more integration.

People:
Major losses expected for the Socialists who may lose half their seats. Impressive dynamic of far-right party (Salvini’s party Lega). Almost two-thirds of future MEPs could sit in non-pro-European parties.

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